Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc4c7…7e77 crypto 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$30 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%154W / 3L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$20
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$26
politics 6% −$7
other 1% +$2
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 157 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 157 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.2%
all 157 +1.4% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.2%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses154 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)157 / 164
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 79¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 92¢ 50¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-46%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8m
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $15 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.48 · official $102.48 (match) · 320 history records