Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c6…fc9f other 29 markets active 19h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-15%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% $0
other 34% −$13
sports 13% $0
crypto 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.7% -28.2% 17% 17% -46.4%
≤30d 29 -16.9% -24.8% 28% 24% -25.6%
≤90d 29 -16.9% -24.8% 28% 24% -25.6%
all 29 -16.9% -24.8% 28% 24% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 24% -25.6%
10% -32.0% 17% -32.7%
15% -38.6% 14% -39.2%
20% -44.6% 7% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $14 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $1 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $1 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 58¢ $0 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $7 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $1 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 22¢ $1 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records