Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c5…4f0f world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4
sports 31% −$7
politics 12% $0
other 12% −$1
finance 3% +$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.9% -12.1% 22% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 30 +3.9% -6.0% 40% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 44 +2.6% -7.2% 36% 2% -9.6%
all 53 -5.2% -14.3% 40% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -9.9%
10% -22.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -30.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage528d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $51 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $26 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $75 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $121 −$1 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $232 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $226 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $226 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $2 $0 +1%
Evansville vs. Missouri State Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Radford vs. Winthrop Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $36 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $36 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $4 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $19 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.89 · official $35.61 · 193 history records