Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c4…6dfd sports 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$409 (-0%) realized +$2,281 · open −$2,690
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%136W / 128L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$529est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$18,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$597
other 43% −$4,351
crypto 7% +$125
world 2% −$616
finance 1% +$19
economics 0% +$52
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 88 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 139 -19.7% -27.4% 45% 42% -13.5%
all 264 -13.0% -21.2% 52% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 45% -12.2%
10% -28.8% 34% -20.6%
15% -35.7% 24% -28.3%
20% -42.0% 18% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$118 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$18,439
Realized+$2,281
Unrealized−$2,690
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses136 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$529
Open positions7
Markets (closed)264 / 271
History coverage162d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $5,794 $8,551 +$2,757 (+48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3,804 $3,929 +$125 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2,699 $2,735 +$36 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,992 $1,963 −$29 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 64¢ 64¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $285 $202 −$82 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5,555 $51 −$5,504 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Jun 30 $3,037 −$131 -4%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $4,700 +$156 +3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $8,453 −$298 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $779 +$394 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $296 +$430 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $192 +$105 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $405 −$400 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $194 +$211 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $108 +$86 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $77 +$32 +41%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $246 −$243 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $199 +$48 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $270 −$266 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 +$131 +128%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $346 +$92 +27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $499 +$283 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $294 −$289 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,479 +$293 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $302 +$77 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $72 −$72 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $166 −$94 -56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $795 +$197 +25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,352 +$255 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $319 −$45 -14%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $179 −$140 -78%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $179 −$122 -68%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $893 −$558 -62%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $508 +$433 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $161 +$37 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$103 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $172 −$170 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $186 +$84 +46%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$25 -92%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $951 −$932 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $246 +$134 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $262 +$139 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $186 +$60 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $216 +$46 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $104 +$82 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $111 +$70 +63%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $267 +$310 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Netherlands 58¢ $2,906 2m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,046 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 64¢ $1,011 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $3,037 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 63¢ $1,088 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1,088 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $826 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2,058 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,771 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 72¢ $3,767 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 67¢ $2,674 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2,675 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $2,025 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2,006 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,523 46h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $608 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,975 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4,060 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $763 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $406 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,173 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $543 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $544 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $34 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $31 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $63 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,438.87 · official $18,471.19 (match) · 1199 history records