Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c3…2e3f weather 410 markets active 3d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,925 (-6%) realized −$26,376 · open −$1,549
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate51%189W / 181L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,209per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$416est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$15,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$12,521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$3,473
other 31% −$8,292
crypto 7% −$15,147
sports 6% −$1,781
economics 0% −$51
world 0% −$1,007
politics 0% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -77.5% -79.6% 21% 0% -81.3%
≤90d 370 -22.0% -29.5% 51% 16% -14.7%
all 370 -22.0% -29.5% 51% 16% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 16% -14.7%
10% -36.2% 10% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -42.4% 7% -30.3%
20% -48.0% 6% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$986) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$293 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$15,193
Realized−$26,376
Unrealized−$1,549
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses189 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$416
Open positions40
Markets (closed)370 / 410
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1,209
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $2,982 $3,211 +$229 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1,610 $1,845 +$235 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1,650 $1,325 −$325 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $860 $1,175 +$315 (+37%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,090 $1,045 −$45 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,060 $1,025 −$35 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $850 $665 −$185 (-22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $1,340 $625 −$715 (-53%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $530 $565 +$35 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $474 $496 +$22 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $410 $445 +$35 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $240 $265 +$25 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $335 $262 −$72 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $235 +$75 (+47%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $225 +$105 (+88%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $165 −$15 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $165 −$55 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $140 $145 +$5 (+4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $190 $145 −$45 (-24%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes $234 $139 −$95 (-41%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $130 $85 −$45 (-35%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ $196 $81 −$115 (-59%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $973 +$27 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 25 $92 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 25 $202 −$192 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $56 −$52 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 25 $9,907 −$9,900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 25 $1,066 +$36 +3%
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin May 19 $1,927 −$1,880 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 19 $134 −$126 -94%
Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka May 19 $128 −$125 -97%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea May 19 $224 −$219 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $1,070 +$94 +9%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $94 +$181 +193%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,806 +$445 +25%
Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith May 14 $1,529 −$114 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $73 −$70 -96%
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15? May 13 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 13 $35 +$22 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 13 $71 −$67 -94%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 13 $364 −$351 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $150 +$292 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 13 $278 −$276 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8,809 +$444 +5%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2,910 −$2,901 -100%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $978 +$64 +6%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3,530 +$147 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $199 −$20 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 8? May 08 $1,011 +$39 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 8? May 08 $779 +$33 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 8? May 08 $2,590 +$50 +2%
Wuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu May 08 $274 −$268 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8? May 07 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 06 $108 +$14 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $159 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $2,517 +$72 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $962 +$36 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $547 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 06 $651 +$41 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 5? May 06 $772 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 5? May 06 $288 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5? May 06 $1,149 +$27 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $170 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down $11 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $134 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $144 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $165 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $196 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $226 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $422 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $247 6d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $545 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,192.71 · official $15,192.71 (match) · 3118 history records