Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c1…185c crypto 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,199 (-9%) realized −$1,290 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%93W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$372
7 days−$372
14 days−$372
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$637
crypto 32% −$322
other 15% +$99
politics 9% −$251
finance 1% −$117
world 0% −$25
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -53.2% -57.7% 12% 12% -46.8%
≤30d 24 -53.2% -57.7% 12% 12% -46.8%
≤90d 80 -32.3% -38.7% 21% 19% -41.2%
all 371 -7.8% -16.6% 25% 24% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 24% -18.8%
10% -24.6% 24% -26.6%
15% -31.8% 23% -33.7%
20% -38.5% 23% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$28 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$1,290
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses93 / 278
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)371 / 374
History coverage141d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Under 11¢ 100¢ $17 $156 +$139 (+819%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $31 −$28 -90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$36 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$99 +311%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 +$243 +237%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $34 +$76 +226%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) May 04 $51 −$51 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 May 04 $41 −$41 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $21 −$21 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $61 +$4 +7%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 03 $51 −$51 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $31 +$53 +172%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 May 03 $201 −$1 -0%
Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $96 −$86 -90%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 02 $20 +$85 +413%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 02 $74 +$108 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 02 $44 −$44 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? May 02 $110 −$110 -100%
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka May 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 May 02 $20 +$75 +365%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $51 +$68 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $17 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 2¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 10h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $31 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $51 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $75 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 10h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 19h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $26 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.72 · official $230.72 (match) · 1033 history records