Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4c1…296a world 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$6
other 19% $0
politics 13% +$1
sports 11% −$8
economics 4% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 +64.7% +49.1% 30% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 69 +34.3% +21.5% 33% 3% -9.8%
all 71 +30.5% +18.1% 32% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.1% 3% -10.2%
10% +6.8% 3% -18.8%
15% -3.5% 3% -26.7%
20% -13.0% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage525d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $158 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $32 −$6 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $77 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $70 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 −$1 -31%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $42 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $25 −$2 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $3 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $126 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $36 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $29 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $27 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $27 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $26 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $0.00 · 314 history records