Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4bc…3c28 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 19% +$5
politics 15% +$4
crypto 6% −$3
culture 5% −$2
tech 3% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 5% -9.6%
all 56 -1.9% -11.2% 38% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage310d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $8 $0 +6%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $9 −$2 -24%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $11 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $46 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $16 +$1 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $6 $0 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $2 $0 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Sep 02 $43 −$3 -8%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 10¢ $4 28h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No $4 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No $8 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $7 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $9 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $12 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $50 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $51 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $50 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 230 history records