Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C4 0xc4b4…071a crypto 24 markets active 5d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days+$11
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -49.9% -54.7% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 23 -47.7% -52.7% 52% 0% -9.5%
all 23 -47.7% -52.7% 52% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -57.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -61.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -65.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,072) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,072 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,064 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,060 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,057 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $2,086 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? May 24 $2,081 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23? May 24 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $2,075 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 23 $2,071 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? May 22 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 18? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,072 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,072 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,064 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,060 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,057 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY No 0¢ $4 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 21d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,086 29d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,081 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,078 30d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,075 31d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,071 31d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 32d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 33d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 35d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 on May 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.25 · official $5.25 (match) · 39 history records