Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc4b2…9a9b crypto 601 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,527 (+2%) realized +$14,714 · open −$5,187
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate71%411W / 169L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$26,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$20,011
world 20% +$8,080
other 14% +$6,523
politics 13% +$2,656
sports 3% +$1,393
weather 2% −$429
economics 0% +$607
finance 0% −$461
culture 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.6% -16.4% 69% 65% +2.3%
≤30d 119 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 54% +1.7%
≤90d 571 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 61% -8.6%
all 580 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 62% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 62% -8.6%
10% -21.3% 30% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 24% -25.4%
20% -35.9% 11% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$704) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$566 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$26,382
Realized+$14,714
Unrealized−$5,187
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses411 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions21
Markets (closed)580 / 601
History coverage92d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 81¢ 99¢ $3,077 $3,767 +$689 (+22%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 65¢ 100¢ $2,094 $3,196 +$1,102 (+53%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $3,107 $3,082 −$25 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 52¢ 96¢ $1,562 $2,916 +$1,353 (+87%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 52¢ 97¢ $1,452 $2,716 +$1,264 (+87%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 61¢ $3,563 $2,524 −$1,039 (-29%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 81¢ 99¢ $1,749 $2,135 +$386 (+22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 72¢ 90¢ $1,693 $2,105 +$412 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $5,054 $1,505 −$3,549 (-70%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 92¢ 97¢ $515 $547 +$31 (+6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 15¢ $3,902 $477 −$3,426 (-88%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 99¢ $370 $413 +$43 (+12%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 34¢ 12¢ $1,064 $359 −$705 (-66%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 92¢ 99¢ $213 $230 +$17 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 71¢ 99¢ $113 $159 +$46 (+41%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 91¢ 100¢ $129 $142 +$13 (+10%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 33¢ $341 $67 −$274 (-80%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 30¢ $909 $33 −$876 (-96%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 32¢ 34¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 17¢ $634 $2 −$632 (-100%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 66¢ $19 $1 −$18 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2,981 +$1,424 +48%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $291 +$74 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,124 +$371 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3,075 +$1,431 +46%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $17 +$7 +43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $1,292 +$727 +56%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,222 +$191 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,221 +$151 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $92 +$34 +37%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $627 +$353 +56%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $702 +$269 +38%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -98%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $3,107 −$3,107 -100%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 13 $3,246 +$461 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 13 $356 −$356 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $447 −$447 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,799 +$947 +53%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $3,169 +$338 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,248 +$127 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $1,299 +$669 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $134 +$14 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $132 +$54 +41%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $2,832 −$1,658 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $642 +$45 +7%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $141 +$13 +10%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $3,224 +$519 +16%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $426 −$426 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $131 +$268 +205%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,036 −$2,036 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $486 +$46 +10%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $691 +$126 +18%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $3,599 +$443 +12%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $3,568 +$561 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,320 +$186 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $475 +$46 +10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $472 −$472 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $637 −$631 -99%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $3,106 +$425 +14%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $188 +$21 +11%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 01 $3,406 −$3,384 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $1,192 +$237 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,752 +$184 +10%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $146 +$37 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3,097 +$776 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1,000 34m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $800 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $67 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $133 7h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $105 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 34¢ $17 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $663 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $0 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $0 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $0 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $80 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 52¢ $1,057 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 52¢ $1 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 52¢ $1 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 51¢ $503 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $148 26h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 32¢ $7 34h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 33¢ $350 36h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $21 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $860 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $46 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $226 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $724 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2,031 37h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1,119 43h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1,897 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $86 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $547 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $212 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,381.59 · official $26,381.59 (match) · 3117 history records