Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc4b1…eb43 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$196 (-15%) realized −$197 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$54
sports 15% +$6
world 11% −$58
other 8% −$44
politics 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -19.7% -27.3% 27% 27% -5.6%
≤30d 11 -19.7% -27.3% 27% 27% -5.6%
≤90d 16 -44.5% -49.8% 19% 19% -31.0%
all 55 -15.1% -23.2% 38% 36% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 36% -20.5%
10% -30.6% 31% -28.1%
15% -37.3% 29% -35.0%
20% -43.4% 25% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage158d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$27 +107%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$12 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$38 +185%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$30 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$12 -38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $19 −$19 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $20 −$19 -95%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 27 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $3 +$4 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 31 $8 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 31 $16 −$3 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 31 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 30 $0 $0 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4PM ET Jan 30 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 30 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 3PM ET Jan 30 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 30 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4PM ET Jan 29 $46 −$6 -12%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $10 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3PM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1PM ET Jan 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12PM ET Jan 29 $40 +$34 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11AM ET Jan 29 $37 −$16 -42%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 28 $50 −$18 -35%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 4) Jan 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6PM ET Jan 28 $50 +$42 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 7PM ET Jan 28 $150 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5PM ET Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 4PM ET Jan 27 $60 +$46 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 4PM ET Jan 27 $25 −$14 -54%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 2PM ET Jan 27 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2PM ET Jan 27 $25 +$24 +94%
Solana Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $10 +$12 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $18 +$16 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 25? Jan 25 $30 +$16 +53%
Solana Up or Down on January 24? Jan 24 $20 −$19 -93%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 2) Jan 23 $30 +$12 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12PM ET Jan 22 $20 +$14 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 17h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Delhi Capitals 55¢ $19 69d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians $1 70d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 34¢ $20 70d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 32¢ $20 73d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 22¢ $10 74d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 47¢ $7 81d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.68 · official $36.04 (match) · 126 history records