Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc4b1…d21f crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (310 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$708 (-3%) realized −$1,011 · open +$303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%121W / 131L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day309.7pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2,699
sports 32% −$489
other 9% +$255
world 3% −$694
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (310 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 43% -5.1%
≤30d 252 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 43% -4.4%
≤90d 252 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 43% -4.4%
all 252 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 43% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover309.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 43% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 40% -13.5%
15% -22.0% 38% -21.9%
20% -29.6% 33% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$83 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,371
Realized−$1,011
Unrealized+$303
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses121 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions2
Markets (closed)252 / 254
History coverage7d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day309.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 92¢ $717 $1,259 +$542 (+76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 20¢ 6¢ $350 $112 −$238 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $236 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $183 +$207 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$97 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $235 +$184 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $381 +$564 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $366 −$164 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $449 −$333 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $81 −$46 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $327 −$327 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $398 −$258 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $183 +$92 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $290 +$318 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $394 −$129 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $111 −$80 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $340 +$332 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $320 +$313 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $185 −$70 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $329 +$414 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $294 +$102 +35%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $358 −$358 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $237 +$550 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $163 +$467 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $157 +$123 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $147 −$74 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $200 −$87 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $183 +$201 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $172 +$201 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $193 +$260 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $262 +$375 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $288 +$393 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $208 +$212 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $314 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $408 −$408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $183 +$282 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $179 +$215 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $168 +$235 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $74 +$186 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $99 +$282 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$55 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $230 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,370.75 · official $1,542.62 · 2449 history records