Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc4b0…07bf crypto 686 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$252 (+1%) realized +$252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%382W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$727
7 days+$1,156
14 days+$278
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$123
other 15% +$83
sports 11% +$22
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -3.4% -12.6% 54% 54% +4.4%
≤30d 297 -6.0% -15.0% 53% 53% -7.2%
≤90d 464 -21.4% -28.8% 43% 43% -17.5%
all 686 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 53% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 53% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 46% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 42% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 36% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses382 / 304
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)686 / 686
History coverage174d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 686 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $111 +$66 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$34 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$15 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$29 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $171 +$46 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$33 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $227 +$145 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $413 +$221 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$108 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $217 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $174 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1687 history records