Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ae…4fbc world 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%34W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$33
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$19
other 40% −$15
politics 8% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 46 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 2% -9.7%
all 109 -3.4% -12.6% 31% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses34 / 75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage374d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $51 −$2 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $311 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $232 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $167 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $168 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $168 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $368 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $73 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $317 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $176 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $149 −$30 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $192 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $174 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $307 −$2 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $183 −$8 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $81 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $193 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $183 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $331 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $407 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $180 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $335 +$21 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $172 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $14 +$3 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $129 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $180 −$3 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $178 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $176 −$2 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $2,013 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,007 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $746 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 14 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 19m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $58 19m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $74 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $167 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $167 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 29h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $167 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $167 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 475 history records