Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ae…b94c world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$14
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% −$13
other 10% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 4% -11.0%
≤90d 23 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 4% -11.0%
all 41 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -10.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage475d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $67 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $36 −$2 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $87 −$13 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $47 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $1 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 2? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 03 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $17 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $15 $0 +1%
Israel wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $6 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $32 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $38 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $20 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $18 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $16 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $36 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $10 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $25 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $13 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $23 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $12 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.25 · official $27.25 (match) · 118 history records