Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4ae…9d43 other 47 markets active 4h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$10
other 11% +$12
economics 3% $0
sports 3% −$37
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -8.1% -16.8% 14% 6% -12.1%
all 46 -6.3% -15.2% 17% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -10.3%
10% -23.4% 4% -18.9%
15% -30.8% 4% -26.7%
20% -37.5% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage619d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $23 +$1 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $345 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $835 −$5 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $807 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $7 4h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $7 5h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.79 · official $29.79 (match) · 264 history records