Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a7…2be6 crypto 1474 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%1423W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day123.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$38
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$41
other 16% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 760 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 3% -9.1%
≤30d 1473 -0.8% -10.3% 97% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 1473 -0.8% -10.3% 97% 2% -9.7%
all 1473 -0.8% -10.3% 97% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 2% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1423 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1473 / 1474
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day123.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $33 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $37 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $9 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $23 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $37 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $24 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $34 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $33 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $21 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $32 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $31 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $31 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.88 · official $17.12 · 2946 history records