Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc4a6…53f7 other 662 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%658W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$6
sports 42% +$9
politics 2% +$1
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 139 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 385 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -8.9%
all 661 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.26 per $1 lost it wins $7.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses658 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)661 / 662
History coverage123d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 2 Winner: Liu vs Tsujioka Liu 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Colson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
MJ Melendez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Colby vs. Chan: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Sam Liccardo advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Salem Al Dawsari: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Joaquín Piquerez: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rodri: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Lucas Bergvall: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Barbashev lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Firas Chaouat: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Sebastian Tounekti: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 3? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 3 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 1 - 0 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Keisuke Gotō: 4+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Jearl Margaritha: 2+ shots on target Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
CD Limache leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 3 - 2 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 2+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Zeki Çelik: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Julian Champagnie score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Derrick Etienne: 2+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots on target Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Mohammed Muntari: 3+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Manuel Akanji: 2+ assists Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals winning after 5 innings? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 2 Winner: Liu vs Tsujioka BUY Liu 100¢ $5 25m
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 100¢ $5 39m
Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 56m
MJ Melendez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Colson Montgomery: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Colby vs. Chan: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 14h
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 14h
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Will Sam Liccardo advance from the CA-16 primary election? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Salem Al Dawsari: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Salem Al Dawsari: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman? BUY Ocon 100¢ $5 26h
Joaquín Piquerez: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Rodri: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Lucas Bergvall: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 45h
Firas Chaouat: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Sebastian Tounekti: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 47h
Will Ivan Barbashev lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Grêmio Novorizontino leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 3 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 2 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 3? BUY Over 99¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1330 history records