Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a6…9f0f other 260 markets active 9h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$43
sports 22% −$19
politics 7% −$7
economics 7% −$7
world 5% −$3
culture 4% −$5
crypto 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage132d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $904 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $486 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $321 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $362 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $764 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $358 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $688 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $136 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $406 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $814 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $451 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $162 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $506 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $545 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $721 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $826 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 9h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 10h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 15h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 16h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 18h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 21h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 21h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $2 21h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $62 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $15 27h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 27h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 41h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 42h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 43h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 46h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1365 history records