Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc4a5…8bdb crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$77 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%80W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$74
14 days+$5
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$7
other 9% −$2
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +15.6% +4.6% 60% 50% +8.8%
≤30d 19 +0.4% -9.2% 68% 37% -7.9%
≤90d 37 +1.7% -8.0% 84% 22% -6.9%
all 87 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 11% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% -8.2%
10% -17.5% 9% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 8% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses80 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage158d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 92¢ 1¢ $74 $1 −$73 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$28 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 +$25 +57%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$49 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$19 +50%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $65 +$40 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$33 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 04 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 01 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? May 20 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? May 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 17? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $41 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $76 +$24 +31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Apr 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 01 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 31? Apr 01 $61 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 30? Mar 31 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 26? Mar 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 22? Mar 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 21? Mar 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? Mar 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 13? Mar 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 12? Mar 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 7? Mar 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 6? Mar 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 5? Mar 06 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Mar 05 $57 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 3? Mar 04 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 24h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $44 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $60 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $33 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $32 12d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 88¢ $27 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 92¢ $75 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $57 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 19? BUY No 96¢ $55 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 96¢ $53 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $98 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $49 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? BUY No 99¢ $48 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 98¢ $47 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 99¢ $47 78d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY No 93¢ $94 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.85 · official $49.85 (match) · 170 history records