Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc4a2…2ee8 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-9%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 4 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤90d 4 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -18.8%
all 4 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 50% -18.8%
10% -23.7% 25% -26.5%
15% -31.1% 25% -33.6%
20% -37.9% 25% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Up 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$10 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 21 history records