Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc49e…f4e1 crypto 1684 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (223 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$783 (+7%) realized +$783 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%1023W / 494L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day223.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,911
7 days+$102
14 days+$1,758
30 days+$1,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (223 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1064 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 59% -5.9%
≤30d 1517 +17.3% +6.1% 67% 67% +7.5%
≤90d 1517 +17.3% +6.1% 67% 67% +7.5%
all 1517 +17.3% +6.1% 67% 67% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover223.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 67% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 67% -2.8%
15% -13.3% 67% -12.2%
20% -21.8% 67% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$783
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1023 / 494
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1517 / 1684
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day223.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1517 Trades
no open positions (494 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.13 · official $72.36 (match) · 3500 history records