Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc49e…0af7 crypto 1049 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22,648 (+5%) realized +$22,632 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%935W / 98L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day62.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15,760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,671
tech 1% +$358
finance 1% +$22
other 0% −$606
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 714 -6.3% -15.2% 88% 12% -11.7%
≤90d 1033 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 15% -9.9%
all 1033 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 15% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 15% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$278 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$15,760
Realized+$22,632
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses935 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1033 / 1049
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$472
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1033 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,488 $3,534 +$46 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,976 $2,980 +$4 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,716 $2,870 +$154 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,001 $1,036 +$35 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 86¢ 88¢ $939 $961 +$22 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 90¢ 96¢ $895 $955 +$60 (+7%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 87¢ 64¢ $799 $582 −$217 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $459 $499 +$39 (+9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 62¢ 66¢ $461 $489 +$28 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $421 $441 +$20 (+5%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 91¢ 93¢ $367 $376 +$9 (+3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $315 $325 +$9 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 79¢ 49¢ $504 $312 −$192 (-38%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 82¢ $249 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $148 $148 −$1 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $453 +$47 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $472 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $475 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $491 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $482 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $458 +$42 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $482 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $450 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $487 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $479 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $479 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $472 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $391 +$103 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $450 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $450 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $473 +$27 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $479 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $473 +$27 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $480 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $472 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $466 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $462 −$460 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $487 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $485 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $483 −$482 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $491 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 16 $132 −$121 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $477 −$475 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $491 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $251 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $159 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $261 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $453 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $472 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $475 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $491 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $486 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $482 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $481 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $458 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $482 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $486 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $477 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $71 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $71 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $71 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,759.86 · official $15,752.61 (match) · 3500 history records