Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc49c…53ae other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+7%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$15
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$42
sports 20% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -13.3% -21.6% 43% 30% -8.1%
≤30d 42 -12.6% -20.9% 45% 33% -8.5%
≤90d 42 -12.6% -20.9% 45% 33% -8.5%
all 42 -12.6% -20.9% 45% 33% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 33% -8.5%
10% -28.5% 26% -17.2%
15% -35.4% 24% -25.2%
20% -41.7% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)42 / 54
History coverage13d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $39 +$32 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $64 −$24 -38%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 −$3 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $58 −$49 -84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -83%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 +$46 +144%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$19 -32%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $69 −$8 -12%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$20 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$34 -66%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 +$1 +2%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 +$37 +70%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $71 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $64 3h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez SELL Nick Hardt 68¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $1 4h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 60¢ $1 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $45 28h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $38 30h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $38 30h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $42 31h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $43 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.55 · official $79.56 (match) · 112 history records