Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc499…f793 other 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,912 (-11%) realized −$16,873 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate56%96W / 76L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$852per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$4,204
crypto 32% −$9,380
sports 17% +$498
tech 5% −$678
politics 4% +$162
world 3% −$3,283
economics 1% +$16
culture 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.6% -47.1% 43% 14% -22.9%
≤30d 12 +57.4% +42.4% 58% 25% +86.3%
≤90d 35 -10.5% -19.0% 37% 20% -78.3%
all 172 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 25% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 25% -19.6%
10% -22.6% 16% -27.3%
15% -30.1% 10% -34.4%
20% -36.9% 8% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$300 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$16,873
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses96 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)172 / 179
History coverage251d
Avg bet$852
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 82¢ 77¢ $672 $633 −$39 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $212 $207 −$5 (-2%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $15 −$4 (-23%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -85%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $25 +$2 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $120 +$82 +68%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $533 +$352 +66%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $145 −$39 -27%
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner? Apr 30 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jynxzi score a goal in the 2026 Sidemen Charity Match? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner Apr 18 $43 −$13 -29%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $10 +$22 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 08 $81 +$1 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $400 +$119 +30%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Apr 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during the 2026 State of the Un Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
First Blood in Game 1? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Apr 08 $933 −$883 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Apr 08 $987 −$955 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Apr 08 $530 −$530 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Apr 08 $242 −$228 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 08 $53 +$28 +53%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $3,396 −$3,301 -97%
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 01 $584 −$584 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $166 −$118 -71%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 01 $564 +$17 +3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $133 −$11 -9%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Mar 01 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Mar 01 $240 −$126 -52%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $141 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $164 +$9 +6%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $1,654 +$267 +16%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 25 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Feb 25 $200 −$42 -21%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Feb 25 $80 +$3 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $100 +$98 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $213 1h
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 4d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $407 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 5d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 5d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $209 5d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $49 5d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $10 5d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 5d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.47 · official $929.58 (match) · 701 history records