Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc498…0cbf crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$233 (-24%) realized −$183 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$132
crypto 21% −$35
sports 17% −$39
world 11% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -22.0% -29.4% 46% 44% -53.4%
≤30d 41 -22.0% -29.4% 46% 44% -53.4%
≤90d 41 -22.0% -29.4% 46% 44% -53.4%
all 41 -22.0% -29.4% 46% 44% -53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 44% -53.4%
10% -36.2% 41% -57.9%
15% -42.3% 34% -61.9%
20% -48.0% 24% -65.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 81¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$86 -84%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$13 +125%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.63 · official $399.64 (match) · 86 history records