Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc498…ff07 politics 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,305 (-1%) realized −$1,305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%20W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,075per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$22
30 days−$1,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$57
other 40% +$125
sports 10% −$1,377
world 4% −$4
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -6.7% -15.6% 13% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 63 -20.4% -28.0% 6% 2% -11.9%
all 107 -1.1% -10.5% 19% 14% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 14% -10.6%
10% -19.1% 14% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 11% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 10% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,327) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$26 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$587
Realized−$1,305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses20 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,075
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $586 $587 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $6,162 −$6 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,068 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $852 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,083 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 22 $1,207 −$1,207 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,149 −$3 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,332 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,297 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,244 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $4,926 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,035 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $2,405 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $1,664 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $3,186 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $849 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $2,091 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 28 $2,173 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $4,549 −$5 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $2,200 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $891 −$1 -0%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $2,540 −$3 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $464 1m
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $464 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $587 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 3d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $868 4d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $823 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $825 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $851 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $852 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $876 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $878 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $739 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $740 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $784 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $785 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $658 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $659 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $942 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $944 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $742 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $743 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $813 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $814 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 27d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $182 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.72 · official $586.72 (match) · 344 history records