Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc497…abd2 crypto 384 markets active 5d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (316 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$194 (+2%) realized +$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%129W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day316.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$213
14 days−$475
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (316 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -11.2% -19.6% 31% 31% -29.8%
≤30d 384 -18.9% -26.6% 34% 31% -18.3%
≤90d 384 -18.9% -26.6% 34% 31% -18.3%
all 384 -18.9% -26.6% 34% 31% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover316.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 31% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 27% -26.1%
15% -40.1% 23% -33.2%
20% -45.9% 18% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses129 / 255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage8d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day316.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $69 +$28 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $65 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $83 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$20 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $64 +$26 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $43 +$26 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $33 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $159 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $60 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $45 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $44 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2602 history records