Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc490…b6de other 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,820 (-19%) realized −$2,763 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%104W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,047
14 days−$2,842
30 days−$2,845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$11
sports 38% −$1,065
other 17% −$1,831
world 1% +$56
crypto 0% +$23
finance 0% −$27
economics 0% −$24
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -54.3% -58.6% 20% 20% -99.2%
≤90d 22 +15.9% +4.9% 64% 64% -82.6%
all 152 +7.2% -3.0% 68% 42% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 42% -30.0%
10% -12.3% 28% -36.7%
15% -20.8% 20% -42.8%
20% -28.5% 18% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$79 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$2,099
Realized−$2,763
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses104 / 48
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)152 / 156
History coverage568d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 50¢ $2,080 $2,020 −$60 (-3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 67¢ 99¢ $15 $23 +$7 (+48%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 15¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,057 −$1,043 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1,831 −$1,795 -98%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $11 +$14 +129%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $76 −$76 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 16 $19 +$11 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $24 +$6 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $34 +$26 +79%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $62 +$18 +29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 11 $16 +$14 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 11 $20 +$30 +152%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 27 $23 +$6 +27%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $48 +$99 +206%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1 $0 +18%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 19 $26 +$34 +127%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Jets vs. Penguins Apr 03 $12 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Apr 03 $27 +$18 +64%
Lakers vs. Magic Apr 03 $31 +$22 +70%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 21 $33 +$27 +81%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? Mar 20 $20 +$20 +96%
Rockets vs. Magic Mar 20 $22 +$18 +82%
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets Feb 26 $20 +$15 +72%
Thunder vs. Spurs Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Feb 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 01 $70 −$1 -2%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Jan 28 $70 $0 -0%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with a poison or toxin? Jan 28 $85 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. Hawks Jan 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 19 $61 +$39 +64%
ASB Classic: Magda Linette vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jan 19 $54 +$66 +122%
Is Earth flat? Jan 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +6%
Harry & Meghan divorce in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +11%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $1 $0 +12%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +18%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +25%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +32%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Jan 07 $2 $0 +7%
Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Jan 07 $5 $0 +1%
SHL: Malmoe vs. Froelunda HC Dec 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Green Bay Phoenix vs. IU Indy Jaguars Dec 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Dec 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $81 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $12 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $510 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $365 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $226 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $136 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $413 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $285 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,057 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $430 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $690 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $710 9d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $11 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $15 37d
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh BUY Shauna Bannon 29¢ $12 44d
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh BUY Shauna Bannon 29¢ $11 44d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $79 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $76 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok BUY Andrey Rublev 61¢ $19 49d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $62 49d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 39¢ $20 60d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $34 63d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $23 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 79¢ $24 71d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 32¢ $48 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,098.95 · official $2,098.95 (match) · 472 history records