Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc48f…be1c
crypto · 96 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$38 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$183
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)88 / 96
History coverage65d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 8 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$53
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 61¢ 60¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by May 31? No 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $71 +$24 +35%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $12 −$7 -59%
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$29 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$28
crypto 36% −$13
sports 25% +$30
finance 1% −$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +7.1% -3.1% 52% 42% -5.2%
≤30d 83 +4.9% -5.1% 52% 42% -5.9%
≤90d 88 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 40% -6.5%
all 88 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 40% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 40% -6.5%
10% -16.7% 24% -15.4%
15% -24.7% 15% -23.6%
20% -32.1% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.32 · official $183.33 (match) · 240 history records