Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc48e…5177 crypto 46 markets active 4h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+7%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%32W / 14L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +22.7% +11.0% 70% 43% -5.8%
≤30d 46 +22.7% +11.0% 70% 43% -5.8%
≤90d 46 +22.7% +11.0% 70% 43% -5.8%
all 46 +22.7% +11.0% 70% 43% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 43% -5.8%
10% +0.4% 39% -14.9%
15% -9.3% 30% -23.1%
20% -18.2% 26% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses32 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$22 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$42 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$26 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $108 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $73 +$70 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$82 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$53 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$18 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$33 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$13 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $108 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $131 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $143 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $34 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records