Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48e…f66c crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$269
other 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -16.7% -24.7% 49% 49% -15.6%
≤30d 55 -16.7% -24.7% 49% 49% -15.6%
≤90d 55 -16.7% -24.7% 49% 49% -15.6%
all 55 -16.7% -24.7% 49% 49% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 49% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 40% -23.6%
15% -38.5% 31% -31.0%
20% -44.5% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$58 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $142 −$125 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$102 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $222 +$172 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $120 +$102 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $86 +$34 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $91 +$31 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $110 +$62 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $170 −$60 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $109 +$61 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $87 +$22 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$19 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$78 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$15 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$57 +100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$71 +335%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $121 −$121 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $94 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $255 +$74 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $179 +$76 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $249 +$114 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $205 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $166 +$39 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $96 +$21 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$7 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $142 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $125 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $106 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $394 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $222 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $222 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $120 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $120 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $86 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $121 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records