Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48d…6c96 crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (460 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$364 (-2%) realized −$363 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%82W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day460.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,145
politics 2% +$21
other 1% −$73
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (460 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-49.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -45.8% -50.9% 23% 19% -36.4%
≤30d 339 -43.8% -49.2% 24% 20% -35.6%
≤90d 339 -43.8% -49.2% 24% 20% -35.6%
all 339 -43.8% -49.2% 24% 20% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover460.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.2% 20% -35.6%
10% ← realistic here -54.0% 17% -41.8%
15% -58.5% 14% -47.4%
20% -62.5% 12% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$34 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$363
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses82 / 257
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 221
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day460.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$7 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$7 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $295 −$295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$7 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$9 -146%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$12 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$15 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$7 -117%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$7 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$11 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$23 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET Jun 16 $495 −$495 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET Jun 16 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records