Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc48b…6c1e sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$400 (-4%) realized −$373 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%102W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$417
14 days−$428
30 days−$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$108
sports 26% −$249
politics 10% −$33
world 9% −$99
weather 9% +$49
crypto 4% +$2
economics 3% +$1
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.5% -33.5% 60% 40% -74.3%
≤30d 57 -25.4% -32.5% 56% 32% -30.1%
≤90d 121 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 35% -14.2%
all 149 +1.5% -8.2% 68% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 37% -13.4%
10% -17.0% 28% -21.6%
15% -25.0% 19% -29.2%
20% -32.3% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized−$373
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses102 / 47
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions13
Markets (closed)149 / 162
History coverage149d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 75¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Real Madrid next? No 97¢ 78¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 83¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? No 72¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 96¢ 80¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 98¢ 86¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026 Jun 19 $100 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $4 $0 +9%
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $302 −$300 -100%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Lennar (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Academy Sports (ASO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +47%
Will JM Smucker (SJM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +30%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +20%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Docusign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $765 −$11 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $199 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 31? Jun 01 $101 +$15 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $198 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $399 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $83 +$17 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $16 −$16 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 27 $63 −$63 -100%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will General Mills (GIS) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY No 72¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 40h
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL No 31¢ $3 40h
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 6d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 6d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 6d
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 6d
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 6d
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 9d
Will Lennar (LEN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 75¢ $3 12d
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 12d
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 63¢ $3 12d
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 12d
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 12d
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 83¢ $3 12d
Will JM Smucker (SJM) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 12d
Will Academy Sports (ASO) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.50 · official $462.18 (match) · 366 history records