Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc489…bc95 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-7%) realized −$221 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$60
sports 17% −$58
other 11% −$46
crypto 3% +$20
politics 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 49% -21.1%
≤30d 53 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 49% -21.1%
≤90d 53 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 49% -21.1%
all 53 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 49% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 49% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 34% -28.6%
15% -27.5% 25% -35.5%
20% -34.6% 17% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)53 / 68
History coverage5d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $186 −$13 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 20 $37 +$7 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$15 -30%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $8 +$4 +54%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 +$28 +276%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $77 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$18 +119%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$10 -33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +37%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $37 −$2 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$36 -90%
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $85 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $189 −$7 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $123 −$27 -22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $25 −$6 -23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$21 -28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$17 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $35 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $37 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $33 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $7 5h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $6 11h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $5 12h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $5 12h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $6 12h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 88¢ $25 14h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 92¢ $5 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 21h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $24 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $25 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $33 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $35 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $37 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $39 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $37 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $25 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $9 41h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $19 42h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 87¢ $19 44h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $37 44h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.75 · official $390.75 (match) · 194 history records