Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc487…613b world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2
world 30% −$12
economics 17% +$2
crypto 9% −$2
sports 9% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.9% -16.7% 20% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 27 +70.8% +54.6% 30% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 33 +58.4% +43.3% 30% 6% -9.7%
all 37 +52.1% +37.6% 27% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.6% 5% -9.7%
10% +24.5% 3% -18.3%
15% +12.4% 3% -26.2%
20% +1.4% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +103% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage97d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $111 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $38 −$11 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $90 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $182 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $183 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $93 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $89 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $114 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $130 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $91 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $83 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $92 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $1,186 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $561 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $497 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $581 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 16 $584 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $642 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $77 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $49 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $76 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $52 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $57 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $77 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $75 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $38 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $90 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $77 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $13 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $3 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $88 8d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $75 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $92 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.83 · official $76.03 (match) · 158 history records