Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc487…ee54 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$4
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$61
other 46% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.8% -15.6% 44% 11% -11.1%
≤30d 15 -4.8% -13.9% 40% 13% -13.5%
≤90d 18 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 11% -12.6%
all 18 -3.8% -13.0% 50% 11% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 11% -12.6%
10% -21.3% 6% -21.0%
15% -28.9% 6% -28.6%
20% -35.9% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage37d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $110 +$2 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $101 −$17 -17%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $101 −$22 -22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $76 −$16 -21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$5 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $76 −$10 -13%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 06 $51 +$25 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $76 −$14 -18%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $126 −$53 -42%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $152 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 1h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4h
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 49¢ $0 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 48¢ $8 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 48¢ $8 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 48¢ $8 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 48¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records