Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc484…551c politics 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$20
politics 36% −$19
sports 8% −$37
economics 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -3.4% -12.6% 6% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage127d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $344 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $196 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $247 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $217 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $451 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $224 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $445 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $264 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $210 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $392 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $656 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $192 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $259 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $501 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 7h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 9h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $250 25d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 25d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 26d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $224 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $224 26d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 26d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $252 27d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $252 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 28d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $182 29d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $182 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $196 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $196 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 31d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $180 31d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $180 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 443 history records