Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc480…2915 weather 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%77W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$26
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 77 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 77 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses77 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage82d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $235 $234 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $235 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $235 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $234 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $232 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $231 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 7? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 5 Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $176 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $230 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $229 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? May 28 $229 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on May 26? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 26? May 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $229 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 23 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $191 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on May 18? May 20 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15? May 15 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 14? May 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on May 14? May 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on May 14? May 13 $204 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 13? May 12 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 12? May 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 10? May 10 $222 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C on May 9? May 08 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 8? May 07 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3? May 04 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29? Apr 29 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on April 28? Apr 29 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 29? Apr 29 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 28? Apr 28 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on April 26? Apr 26 $221 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $235 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $235 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $235 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $234 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $232 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $120 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $112 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $231 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $200 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $137 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $65 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $123 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on June 5 BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $72 20d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $176 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $230 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $229 25d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $229 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $229 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $129 31d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 31d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $229 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $228 33d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? SELL No 100¢ $35 35d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $35 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.19 · official $234.19 (match) · 158 history records