Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc480…bb68
crypto · 23 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
+$7,957 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,878 · open +$2,079
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,079
Realized+$5,878
Unrealized+$2,079
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage669d
Avg bet$2,957
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 4 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7,000 $6,955 −$45 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4,000 $6,500 +$2,500 (+62%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4,000 $3,905 −$95 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,000 $2,719 −$281 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+275%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 before September? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1,145 $0 −$1,145 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2,009 $0 −$2,009 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $9,800 $0 −$9,800 (-100%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2,300 $0 −$2,300 (-100%)
Will $BTC reach 70k before September? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4,400 $0 −$4,400 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3,995 $0 −$3,995 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $3,519 $0 −$3,519 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $3,519 −$3,519 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 12 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 3 Dec 31 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $3,995 −$3,995 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $17,345 +$34,953 +202%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $1,500 −$550 -37%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Aug 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address? Jan 20 $2,009 −$2,009 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 18 $472 +$619 +131%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? Sep 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 before September? Aug 29 $1,145 −$1,145 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September? Aug 26 $500 +$528 +106%
Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview? Aug 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Will $BTC reach 70k before September? Aug 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% +$9,602
other 27% +$2,065
world 5% −$3,519
economics 3% +$39
politics 0% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $301 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3,576 8h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $242 8h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4,117 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,454 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $960 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $675 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $513 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4,635 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,059 9h
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2,516 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $57 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $284 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $54 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $189 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $47 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $95 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 102d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $178 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,611 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 19 +36.8% +23.8% 16% 16% -91.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.8% 16% -91.4%
10% +12.0% 16% -92.2%
15% +1.1% 16% -92.9%
20% -8.8% 16% -93.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,078.66 · official $20,078.53 (match) · 605 history records