Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc480…7585 crypto 578 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%328W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$38
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.2% -9.3% 69% 69% -10.7%
≤30d 578 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 52% -11.8%
≤90d 578 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 52% -11.8%
all 578 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 52% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -20.3%
15% -28.9% 29% -28.0%
20% -35.9% 21% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses328 / 250
Open positions0
Markets (closed)578 / 578
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 578 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1478 history records