Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc47d…4677 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%20W / 52L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$9
politics 27% −$1
sports 15% +$3
economics 8% −$3
other 8% −$3
finance 2% +$2
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.1% 34% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 72 +0.3% -9.2% 28% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses20 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage273d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $113 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $74 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $492 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $161 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $142 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $71 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $76 −$6 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $194 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $87 −$9 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $188 +$8 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $143 +$2 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $112 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $539 +$4 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $538 +$1 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $541 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $188 −$3 -1%
GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 10 $160 +$1 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 09 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $213 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 31 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 -8%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $53 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $71 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $9 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $53 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $11 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $42 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $32 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $73 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $32 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $72 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $81 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $74 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $81 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $81 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $80 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $80 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $81 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $81 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.40 · official $53.40 (match) · 288 history records