Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc479…e938 sports 996 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 188d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,465 (-18%) realized −$1,465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%294W / 702L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$166
14 days−$166
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$107
crypto 22% −$115
other 1% −$16
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -17.8%
≤30d 213 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -17.8%
≤90d 213 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -17.8%
all 996 -7.8% -16.6% 30% 29% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 29% -12.2%
10% -24.6% 28% -20.6%
15% -31.8% 27% -28.3%
20% -38.5% 25% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses294 / 702
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)996 / 996
History coverage188d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 996 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$10 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$17 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$7 +164%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records