Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc478…d38c world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$66 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$14
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$74
sports 17% −$3
other 13% $0
politics 8% −$7
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% +$6
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 34 +1.3% -8.4% 29% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 41 +1.0% -8.6% 27% 10% -8.9%
all 88 -1.9% -11.3% 32% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.0%
10% -19.8% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage481d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 54¢ $221 $219 −$2 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $11 −$3 -30%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $205 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $350 +$17 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $226 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $235 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 −$4 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $452 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$5 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $191 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $234 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $134 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $212 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $286 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $210 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $289 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $396 −$20 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $95 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $213 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $392 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $242 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $25 +$6 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $226 −$24 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $335 +$109 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $154 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $170 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $154 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $206 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $979 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,077 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $985 −$6 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 26 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $221 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $138 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $138 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $65 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $44 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $157 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $145 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $226 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $226 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $100 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $97 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $200 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $235 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.53 · official $218.81 (match) · 368 history records