trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 67% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 40% | 0% | -13.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 40% | 0% | -13.0% |
| all | 24 | +45.1% | +31.3% | 58% | 8% | +1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +31.3% | 8% | +1.6% |
| 10% | +18.7% | 4% | -8.1% |
| 15% | +7.3% | 4% | -17.0% |
| 20% | -3.3% | 4% | -25.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 25 | $31 | −$1 | -4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $34 | −$3 | -10% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 23 | $36 | −$10 | -27% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 29 | $6 | +$70 | +1090% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 20 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 20 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 19 | $6 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $12 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | Apr 04 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Mar 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 24 | $2 | $0 | -4% |