Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc475…17bf other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$717 (-28%) realized −$718 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$660
14 days−$698
30 days−$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$549
sports 13% −$54
world 3% −$60
crypto 3% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -49.6% -54.4% 17% 14% -54.6%
≤30d 136 -35.6% -41.8% 18% 15% -39.9%
≤90d 136 -35.6% -41.8% 18% 15% -39.9%
all 136 -35.6% -41.8% 18% 15% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 15% -39.9%
10% -47.3% 12% -45.7%
15% -52.4% 12% -50.9%
20% -57.1% 12% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$14 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$718
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 112
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)136 / 163
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$11 +57%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $10 +$22 +226%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -62%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $26 +$97 +380%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $21 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +137%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $22 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 +$3 +22%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND SELL 99¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026 BUY 1¢ $5 11h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Cabo V BUY 13¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 30¢ $10 11h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? AND Exact Score: Any Other Scor BUY 2¢ $4 37h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.93 · official $35.84 · 220 history records