Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc474…7b96 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$219 (-9%) realized −$137 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$586per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$82
other 47% −$338
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -48.2% -53.1% 0% 0% -53.1%
≤30d 3 -37.7% -43.6% 0% 0% -37.5%
≤90d 3 -37.7% -43.6% 0% 0% -37.5%
all 3 -37.7% -43.6% 0% 0% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 0% -37.5%
10% -49.0% 0% -43.5%
15% -54.0% 0% -48.9%
20% -58.5% 0% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$113 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage24d
Avg bet$586
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $741 $660 −$82 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $518 −$250 -48%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 05 $101 −$60 -59%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $474 −$29 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.55 · official $659.55 (match) · 39 history records