Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc474…b6cd other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$8
other 22% $0
politics 17% +$3
sports 11% +$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.6% -13.7% 33% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 25% 0% -10.9%
all 43 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage446d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -14%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $20 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $130 −$6 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $108 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -6%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 82°F or below on August 12? Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Aug 10 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $25 $0 -2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 05 $23 $0 -1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 29 $22 +$1 +5%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 28 $22 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump dance in March? Mar 30 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 29 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 20h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.25 · official $42.25 (match) · 153 history records