Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc472…6650 crypto 216 markets active 3h ago coverage 11d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$571 (-16%) realized −$571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%134W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -68.3% -71.3% 18% 18% -69.7%
≤30d 469 -53.6% -58.0% 29% 28% -49.9%
≤90d 469 -53.6% -58.0% 29% 28% -49.9%
all 469 -53.6% -58.0% 29% 28% -49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.0% 28% -49.9%
10% ← realistic here -62.1% 21% -54.7%
15% -65.7% 18% -59.1%
20% -69.1% 17% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses134 / 335
Open positions0
Markets (closed)469 / 216
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 469 Trades
no open positions (332 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$28 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$28 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$15 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$24 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$17 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 11AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$22 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$29 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$27 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$47 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$30 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$34 -200%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$25 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$12 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$21 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$56 -200%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$66 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$25 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$26 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$50 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.19 · official $66.19 (match) · 3500 history records