Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc46e…c052 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$439 (-6%) realized −$438 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%64W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days+$394
30 days+$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$351
crypto 4% −$170
other 3% −$49
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -38.2% -44.1% 0% 0% -44.1%
≤30d 13 -32.1% -38.6% 38% 31% +6.9%
≤90d 51 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 27% -8.8%
all 173 -14.9% -23.0% 37% 32% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 32% -16.9%
10% -30.4% 29% -24.8%
15% -37.1% 25% -32.1%
20% -43.3% 23% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$24 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$438
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses64 / 109
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions3
Markets (closed)173 / 177
History coverage531d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $170 −$65 -38%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $796 +$623 +78%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $429 +$47 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $1,404 +$135 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 19 $42 +$60 +143%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $108 −$106 -98%
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 13 $120 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Apr 07 $40 −$30 -74%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $100 +$29 +29%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $20 +$21 +105%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 06 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 06 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 06 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 06 $42 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 06 $18 −$15 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 06 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$6 +118%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 03 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $190 −$84 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 03 $23 −$17 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 03 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 03 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 03 $75 −$71 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -96%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $20 −$19 -98%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $20 −$19 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 1h
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $105 1h
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $170 10d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 64¢ $202 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 29¢ $10 11d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 13d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 13d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 15d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 15d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 91¢ $1,404 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,403 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $245 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $235 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 25¢ $375 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $20 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 16¢ $101 35d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 51¢ $102 35d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 29¢ $108 72d
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? SELL Yes 86¢ $108 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.08 · official $138.08 (match) · 360 history records